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Probable Error


The probable error of a variate from a normal distribution is the half-width of the symmetric interval about its mean containing probability 1/2. For the sample mean x^_ of N independent observations from a normal distribution with mean mu and standard deviation sigma>0, where N is a positive integer, the probability Q_delta that x^_ is within |delta| standard errors of mu is

 Q_delta=2Phi(|delta|),
(1)

where Phi(z)=1/2erf(z/sqrt(2)) is the normal distribution function in the convention used here. The standardized sample mean is

 t=(x^_-mu)/(sigma/(sqrt(N))).
(2)

The probable error measured in standard errors is the positive value delta^* such that Q_(delta^*)=1/2, i.e.,

 Phi(delta^*)=1/4,
(3)

which is given by

delta^*=sqrt(2)erf^(-1)(1/2)
(4)
=0.674489750...
(5)

(OEIS A092678; Kenney and Keeping 1962, p. 134). Here, erf^(-1)(x) is the inverse erf function. The probability of a deviation from the population mean at least as great as the probable error is therefore 1/2. In the original units, the probable error of x^_ is delta^*sigma/sqrt(N).


See also

Inverse Erf, Normal Distribution, Significance, Standard Error, Standard Normal Distribution

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References

Kenney, J. F. and Keeping, E. S. Mathematics of Statistics, Pt. 1, 3rd ed. Princeton, NJ: Van Nostrand, pp. 129 and 134, 1962.Sloane, N. J. A. Sequence A092678 in "The On-Line Encyclopedia of Integer Sequences."Whittaker, E. T. and Robinson, G. The Calculus of Observations: A Treatise on Numerical Mathematics, 4th ed. New York: Dover, p. 184, 1967.

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Probable Error

Cite this as:

Weisstein, Eric W. "Probable Error." From MathWorld--A Wolfram Resource. https://mathworld.wolfram.com/ProbableError.html

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