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First-Passage Time


The first-passage time, or hitting time, of a stochastic process (X_t)_(t>=0) to a set A is the random variable

 tau_A=inf{t>=0:X_t in A}.
(1)

For a discrete-time process, the infimum is taken over the nonnegative integers. Under the usual adaptedness assumptions, tau_A is a stopping time.

The distribution function F and survival function S of tau_A satisfy

F(t)=P(tau_A<=t)
(2)
S(t)=P(tau_A>t)=1-F(t).
(3)

If the distribution has a probability density function f, then

 f(t)=(dF(t))/(dt)=-(dS(t))/(dt),
(4)

and the mean first-passage time can be written as

 E[tau_A]=int_0^inftyS(t)dt,
(5)

with the value possibly infinite.

For example, let X_t=x+sqrt(2D)W_t, where W_t is a standard Brownian motion, and let a>x. The density of the first-passage time to a is

 f(t)=(a-x)/(sqrt(4piDt^3))exp(-((a-x)^2)/(4Dt)).
(6)

This formula holds for t>0. Although the process reaches a with probability one, this distribution has infinite expectation value. Introducing stochastic resetting can make the corresponding mean first-passage time finite.


See also

First-Passage Percolation, Random Walk, Stopping Time

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References

Chandrasekhar, S. "Stochastic Problems in Physics and Astronomy." Rev. Mod. Phys. 15, 1-89, 1943. https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.15.1.Redner, S. A Guide to First-Passage Processes. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511606014.

Cite this as:

Weisstein, Eric W. "First-Passage Time." From MathWorld--A Wolfram Resource. https://mathworld.wolfram.com/First-PassageTime.html

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