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Posterior Risk


The posterior risk rho(a|x) of an action a after observing data x is the expected value of its loss function with respect to the posterior distribution. If L(a,theta) is a loss function and pi(theta|x) is a density for the posterior distribution of the unknown parameter theta, then

 rho(a|x)=intL(a,theta)pi(theta|x)dtheta.

For a discrete parameter, the integral is replaced by a sum. A Bayes decision rule selects, for each observed x, an action that minimizes the posterior risk.


See also

Bayes Decision Rule, Decision Theory, Loss Function, Posterior Distribution

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References

Berger, J. O. Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis, 2nd ed. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1985.

Cite this as:

Weisstein, Eric W. "Posterior Risk." From MathWorld--A Wolfram Resource. https://mathworld.wolfram.com/PosteriorRisk.html

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