Talagrand's discrete convexity conjecture asserts that a sufficiently likely family of subsets of a finite set
covers, by a universal number of unions of its members,
every set outside an exceptional family
with inexpensive containment witnesses (Talagrand 2021, Research Problem 13.3.2).
For a positive integer , put
. For
, let
be the product measure
on the power set
obtained by including each element independently with
probability
. For an arbitrary family
and a positive
integer
, put
The chosen members may repeat and need not be disjoint. For example, if consists of all subsets with at
most
elements for a nonnegative
integer
, then
consists of those with at least
elements.
A family is
-small if there is a family
such that every
contains some
and
. This is the covering notion used
to define the expectation threshold and
implies
by the first of the Bonferroni
inequalities. The conjecture states that some
universal positive integer
satisfies
The same parameter is used for the starting product
measure and the covering cost.