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Secretary Problem


The secretary problem, also called the best-choice problem or marriage problem, is an optimal stopping problem in which n distinctly ranked candidates are presented in an order given by a random permutation. After each interview, the interviewer knows only the candidate's relative rank among those already seen and must either accept that candidate or reject the candidate permanently. The objective is to maximize the probability of selecting the best candidate.

Suppose the first r candidates are rejected and the first later candidate better than all of them is accepted. The probability that this rule selects the best candidate is

 P_n(r)=r/nsum_(k=r)^(n-1)1/k.

For large n, writing x=r/n gives the approximation P_n(r) approx -xlnx. This is maximized at x=1/e, so the optimal rule asymptotically rejects the first n/e candidates and then accepts the next record. Its limiting success probability is also 1/e (Freeman 1983, Ferguson 1989).

This use of "marriage problem" is distinct from Hall's marriage theorem, which concerns the existence of a matching, and from the stable marriage problem, which concerns stability under two sets of preference rankings.


See also

Hall's Marriage Theorem, Optimal Stopping, Stable Marriage Problem, Stopping Time

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References

Ferguson, T. S. "Who Solved the Secretary Problem?" Statist. Sci. 4, 282-296, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177012493.Freeman, P. R. "The Secretary Problem and Its Extensions: A Review." Int. Statist. Rev. 51, 189-206, 1983. https://doi.org/10.2307/1402748.

Cite this as:

Weisstein, Eric W. "Secretary Problem." From MathWorld--A Wolfram Resource. https://mathworld.wolfram.com/SecretaryProblem.html

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