Weak Law of Large Numbers

The weak law of large numbers (cf. the strong law of large numbers) is a result in probability theory also known as Bernoulli's theorem. Let X_1, ..., X_n be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, each having a mean <X_i>=mu and standard deviation sigma. Define a new variable

 X=(X_1+...+X_n)/n.
(1)

Then, as n->infty, the sample mean <x> equals the population mean mu of each variable.

<X>=<(X_1+...+X_n)/n>
(2)
=1/n(<X_1>+...+<X_n>)
(3)
=(nmu)/n
(4)
=mu.
(5)

In addition,

var(X)=var((X_1+...+X_n)/n)
(6)
=var((X_1)/n)+...+var((X_n)/n)
(7)
=(sigma^2)/(n^2)+...+(sigma^2)/(n^2)
(8)
=(sigma^2)/n.
(9)

Therefore, by the Chebyshev inequality, for all epsilon>0,

 P(|X-mu|>=epsilon)<=(var(X))/(epsilon^2)=(sigma^2)/(nepsilon^2).
(10)

As n->infty, it then follows that

 lim_(n->infty)P(|X-mu|>=epsilon)=0.
(11)

(Khinchin 1929). Stated another way, the probability that the average |(X_1+...+X_n)/n-mu|<epsilon for epsilon an arbitrary positive quantity approaches 1 as n->infty (Feller 1968, pp. 228-229).

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