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Condorcet's Jury Theorem


Condorcet's jury theorem states that given a group of voters (a "jury") independently choosing by majority vote between a correct outcome with probability 0<=p<=1 and an incorrect one with probability 1-p:

1. If p>1/2 (so that each voter is more likely to vote correctly that incorrectly), adding more voters increases the probability that the majority chooses correctly and the probability of a correct decision approaches 1 as the number of voters increases;

2. If p<1/2 (so that each voter is less likely to vote incorrectly than correctly), adding more voters decreases the probability that the majority chooses correctly and the probability of a correct decision is maximized for a jury of size one.


See also

Condorcet Candidate

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References

Condorcet, J.-A.-N. de Caritat, marquis de. "Essai sur l'application de l'analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix." Paris: Imprimerie Royale, 1785.

Cite this as:

Weisstein, Eric W. "Condorcet's Jury Theorem." From MathWorld--A Wolfram Web Resource. https://mathworld.wolfram.com/CondorcetsJuryTheorem.html

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